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What will the next disaster be?

What will the next disaster be?

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Are most people preparing for a total end-of-the-world event where there is global anarchy?

Or are most people preparing for local disaster/emergency, their home country failing, et cetera.

My View

The last global event happened in what is now Mexico, and was 66 million years ago. While the last major local event started in February when Russia invaded Ukraine. And there are going to be minor local events around the globe every week.

So while it would be nice to be prepared to survive another asteroid impact, or a global nuclear war, or similar, the chances you will need that are minimal.

Situations

I try and classify situations as how likely they are to occur.

WILL HAPPEN

There are events that are going to happen, near you, this year. They may not affect you, but they will happen in your region. Not maybe, not possible, they will happen. Depending upon where you live that could be forest fires, blizzards, hurricanes/cyclones, tornadoes, droughts, or floods.

POSSIBLY HAPPEN

Then there are the possible happens. This covers things like civil unrest, government collapses, invasion or coup, recession, 

UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN

Lastly there are the unlikely events. These would be more global in nature, and would affect most areas of the planet. In addition to the mentioned asteroids and nuclear war, these could include super-volcano eruptions, global pandemic (which goes to show that unlikely does not mean never), global recession.

Responses

Then we can look at responses needed for each.

WILL HAPPEN

These are the events were you need to be self-sufficient for a few weeks at most. Help will arrive shortly, you just need to hang on until it does. Have a week or two's supply of food and water, emergency first aid, heat & fuel.

In some cases you may need to leave your home (a forest fire or flood for example). So have emergency supplies ready to go (including identity documents).

POSSIBLY HAPPEN

For these events, the best course of action is to leave the region/country. Using Ukraine as the example, millions of people have fled the country. 

While it is possible to "head to the hills", you are still in the danger area. Your chances of survival are based upon the hope that danger doesn't find you.

If you flee the region/country, where can you go, and how do you get there?

You will need your identity documents and the food, water and first aid from the above scenario.

UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN

Lastly there are the unlikely events. These would be more global in nature, and would affect most areas of the planet. In addition to the mentioned asteroids and nuclear war, these could include super-volcano eruptions, global pandemic (and COVID goes to show that unlikely does not mean won't happen), and global recession.

If this happens, you will need to travel. There will still be some regions that are less influenced than others, and your long-term survival depends upon you reaching those places.

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Posts in discussion: What will the next disaster be?
JimWin replied the topic:
#128
6 days 20 hours ago
Ahoy there, fellow preppers and survivalists. This is James Winthrop, coming to you from the sunny shores of Florida. I thoroughly enjoyed reading this pragmatic breakdown of potential disaster scenarios. Your rational approach to classifying the likelihood of events is a refreshing change from the usual doom-and-gloom prophecy.

As a seasoned sailor and a decade-long prepper, my family and I have developed a unique bug-out plan that involves our 40-foot sailboat. After experiencing a major hurricane, we've realized that the sea, while often unpredictable, could also be a lifesaver when terra firma turns hostile.

I completely agree with your 'WILL HAPPEN' classification. Living in Florida, hurricanes are an annual visitor. We've learned that being self-sufficient for a few weeks is not just a matter of survival, but also of maintaining some sense of normalcy in the face of calamity. Our sailboat, equipped with solar panels and a water desalination system, allows us to weather these storms with relative comfort.

For 'POSSIBLY HAPPEN' events, my family's plan is similar to your advice. Our sailboat doubles as our bug-out vehicle, ready to whisk us away to safer waters. Navigating the open seas requires careful planning and preparation, much like prepping. We keep a vigilant eye on global and local news, ready to hoist our sails when the situation turns sour.

The 'UNLIKELY TO HAPPEN' events, while frightening to consider, are indeed a possibility. In such cases, the open sea could be a sanctuary, away from the worst of the disaster. Of course, this isn't a viable option for everyone. But as sailors, we are prepared to adjust our bearings and chart a course towards survival.

Lastly, I'd like to add that preparation isn't just about collecting supplies or planning escape routes. It's also about mental resilience and maintaining hope even when the skies are dark and stormy. After all, as any seasoned sailor will tell you, the sea is unpredictable, but she also grants the most glorious sunrises after the darkest nights.

Stay prepared, stay safe, and always remember - the sea is a formidable force, but in the right vessel, it can also be your saving grace. Fair winds and following seas, fellow preppers.
SailAwayRowan replied the topic:
#78
4 weeks 15 hours ago
Ahoy there! Your well-thought-out classification of potential disasters and the respective measures to take is indeed comprehensive and practical. I couldn't agree more with your articulation, especially your emphasis on the necessity of being prepared for 'will happen' events. Being a sailor and a prepper for over a decade, I've learned that Mother Nature has her own rhythms, and we should be ready to dance to her tunes.

One thing I'd like to add, considering my maritime background, is the option of using the sea as a bug-out location. While fleeing the region or country might be the best approach for 'possibly happen' events, the sea offers a unique alternative to 'head to the hills'. With a liveaboard capable vessel, such as our 30-foot sloop equipped for long-term living, one can potentially avoid regions of unrest or disaster.

I've always considered our sailboat as a viable bug-out option, heading out to sea if things get really bad on land. Certainly, this isn't a solution for everyone. It requires a deep understanding of sailing, survival skills, and a vessel equipped for long-term inhabitation and self-sustainability. But, for those with these resources, it's an option worth considering.

Also, for the 'unlikely to happen' events, while you're correct that travel would be necessary to reach less influenced regions, a well-equipped boat can offer the mobility needed in such dire situations. A solar-powered desalination system can provide a nearly endless supply of fresh water, and solar panels can generate power for the essential equipment onboard.

I hope this maritime perspective adds a new dimension to the conversation. Keep up the good work, and remember, as we sailors say, 'Smooth seas do not make skillful sailors'. We should always prep for the rough waves, too.
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